Earlier this year, Watershed Watch staff attended DFO’s annual Salmon Outlook presentation, which summarizes anticipated salmon returns for B.C. for 2025. To inform these predictions, DFO looks at historical data, including how many fish spawned in the parent generation, hatchery release numbers, and, importantly, environmental factors. 

We’ll break down the outlook for salmon returns in part two, but first, we will recap DFO’s summary of environmental conditions to set the stage.

Before we dive in, please note that steelhead are managed provincially, so they will not be specifically mentioned, but environmental conditions would impact them similarly. The life history of steelhead is similar to stream-type chinook in that they spend one or more years rearing in freshwater.

Who’s coming home in 2025? (It’s a bit complicated.)

All five species of salmon will return to B.C. waterways to spawn this year. Check out the chart below that breaks down who is coming back to spawn in 2025. (This list is not comprehensive with regard to subtype, but highlights common subtypes in B.C.)

Fisheries Advisor Greg Taylor

You’ll note that there is variation in lifespan between species as well as different life strategies amongst salmon species. Pinks only have a two-year lifespan versus chinook and sockeye, which can commonly live up to five years (and sometimes longer).

Coho, chinook, sockeye and chum all exhibit flexibility with how long individuals spend in freshwater and marine habitats. Pink, chum, ocean-type chinook and even some ocean-type sockeye go to sea soon after hatching out. Most sockeye spend one or two years rearing in lakes, whereas coho and stream-type chinook rear in streams for one or more years.

These different strategies and lifespans mean some salmon spend more or less time in marine and freshwater habitats. Drought, wildfire, floods, marine conditions and other factors related to climate change will therefore impact each of these species and subtypes differently.

The full impact of the November 2021 floods on populations of salmon, such as some chum and chinook, is still unknown.

Freshwater Conditions

2020 was, generally speaking, a good year to be a salmon in freshwater. While there was some regional drought, overall conditions were good for fish.

2021 was more stressful for salmon. B.C. experienced a record-breaking heatwave in June, followed by drought conditions that intensified over the following months. These conditions likely impacted spawning salmon, eggs in gravel, and juvenile salmon rearing in freshwater. 2021 also saw the intense atmospheric rivers that triggered catastrophic flooding in parts of southern B.C.

Although there was concern that floods and high streamflows scoured out newly laid salmon eggs or displaced spawners, pink salmon returned in large numbers in 2023, suggesting they weren’t significantly affected. More time and research will be needed to determine how the flooding impacted other species.

2022 saw drought arrive late in the year, spread widely across the province, and persist into fall, posing significant challenges for adult salmon migrating to their spawning grounds.

2023 is the last year any salmon returning in 2025 would have been in freshwater. That year saw an extremely hot May that melted snowpacks early. Combined with low precipitation, this created extreme drought across B.C. from July through September. Some communities even issued fish protection orders to keep minimum freshwater flows for fish.

2023 was also B.C.’s worst wildfire season on record. Wildfires impact salmon both immediately and over time. Burned slopes shed more sediment into streams, which can damage gills and smother eggs. Landslides can block fish passage, and the loss of streamside vegetation leads to warmer water temperatures that can stress or kill salmon.

Loss of forest cover due to extensive clearcut logging as well as wildfires and bug kill (both of which have been increasing due to climate change) have also led to more intense flooding and drought, and reduced shading along streams, all of which lead to lower flows and warmer water.

There is widespread evidence that poor freshwater conditions negatively impact salmon populations that rear in freshwater. It is likely a major factor in why many populations of stream-type chinook, sockeye, coho, and steelhead continue to decline and struggle. 

DFO’s managers must navigate the difficult trade-offs between pleasing their clients in the recreational, commercial and development industries, and protecting these salmon populations for the benefit of all Canadians, per their commitments. Note, I use the term ‘protecting’. DFO’s Wild Salmon Policy demands that DFO managers recover these populations, but DFO appears to be leaning into the much lower bar of protecting, or trying to ensure these populations ‘persist’. 

There is significant concern that we could see a hot, dry summer or even another ‘heat dome’ in 2025.

Salmon smolts Photo: Tavish Campbell

Marine Conditions

The world’s oceans are heating up due to human-caused climate change. 2024 was the hottest year on record, and marine heatwaves have become a feature of the Pacific Northwest. Warmer ocean waters are bad news for salmon because their preferred food—larger zooplankton—is less abundant in these conditions.

While global temperatures are rising, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation can influence marine conditions in the short term. El Niño generally leads to warmer, drier conditions in B.C., reducing coastal ocean productivity. La Niña brings cooler, wetter weather and typically improves ocean conditions for salmon.

We experienced La Niña conditions for three consecutive years, with a brief El Niño arriving in late 2023. Since then, conditions have reverted back to La Niña for a year and a half and are now neutral (average).

Marine rearing conditions are thought to be relatively good for salmon returning in 2025. But many populations that migrate into the interior of our province in July, August, and early September may face a difficult journey, mitigating any benefit that positive marine conditions may have had. Those that spawned in 2023 and 2024, and are rearing in freshwater environments, will face another challenging year.

Pink salmon, which tend to spawn in the lower reaches of rivers, don’t face these same challenges. Although it is fascinating to note that while other interior salmon species that rear in freshwater environments struggle, pink salmon are colonizing new habitats in the interior of the province.

The Salish Sea is also clearly in a positive phase for salmon. It is not clear what produces these positive phases or how long this one will last.

Even if we act now to curb climate change, ocean temperatures will remain elevated for a long time. There’s no quick fix. Warmer marine conditions will continue to pose a long-term challenge for wild salmon. What might happen when the next prolonged El Niño event occurs on top of the increased heat being trapped in our oceans is an ongoing concern.

Final Take-aways

Some time has passed since we attended the Salmon Outlook presentation. As of June 1, 2025, the provincial snowpack is just 44% of normal. Precipitation and temperatures over the coming months will decide how severe and long-lasting any period of drought might be in B.C., but current conditions pose a concern, particularly for Fraser River, central-coast and Vancouver Island populations.

We’re also heading into summer with a ‘neutral’ El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition—meaning we’re not currently experiencing either El Niño or La Niña. In a neutral ENSO phase, we don’t get the stronger warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) signals that can shape seasonal weather. 

Photo: Tavish Campbell

That means our summer weather will depend more on local conditions like snowpack, soil moisture, and short-term weather systems. The outlook from the USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is for an above-average dry and warm summer in the western part of the country.

The last few years have been a mixed bag environmentally. While tackling warming oceans will require a global effort, there are local actions we can take here in B.C. to support salmon. These include restoring and reconnecting freshwater habitats, limiting mixed-stock marine fisheries (at least until there is independent third-party monitoring of stock composition and impacts), and removing open net-open fish farms from coastal waters.

Stay tuned for part two, where we’ll break down DFO’s Salmon Outlook for 2025.