Note: This blog is Part Two of the 2025 Salmon Outlook recap from fisheries expert Greg Taylor. Part One focused on the environmental conditions informing the 2025 Salmon Outlook.

Part One of the 2025 Salmon Outlook Recap

Earlier this year, Watershed Watch staff attended DFO’s 2025 Salmon Outlook session, where forecasts for this year’s salmon returns were presented alongside a review of recent environmental conditions that inform the Outlook. We’ve already posted a summary of those environmental drivers, and in this blog, we focus on the anticipated returns outlined in the Outlook, plus added insights from our fisheries advisor, Greg Taylor.

A Few Caveats and Considerations

Shifting Baselines

Greg Taylor

After a quick look back at the 2024 outlook, there are a number of populations that are anticipated to have improved returns in 2025. However, while we are discussing anticipated returns, it is always important to take a step back and consider shifting baselines. The truth is this: In comparison to historic levels, our current salmon returns are generally abysmal.

We must not fail to acknowledge how many salmon there used to be, or we run the risk of accepting smaller runs as “normal” and not pushing for stronger conservation measures. As we dive into the outlook, remember that the rankings below would be much lower than they are if compared to historical values.

In a changing climate, with increasing ocean temperatures and ongoing threats to freshwater habitats from industry, now is the time to set bold recovery goals for wild salmon.

Spawning coho salmon

Data Deficiency

To effectively monitor wild salmon, a resource that is integral to food security, coastal economies and B.C.’s watersheds, we must understand their current status. More funding and effort are needed to address data deficiencies.

Transparency Concerns

A final note before diving into the outlook: Attendees at DFO’s 2025 Salmon Outlook session were not permitted to ask questions, and the session was not recorded. This lack of transparency undermines public confidence and limits the potential for informed dialogue. Many small, but important, details were mentioned by presenters but not included in the slide decks. We will continue advocating for greater openness in future outlook sessions.

2025 Salmon Outlook

Here is 2025’s salmon outlook. Salmon are listed by their Stock Management Unit – SMU, which is a group of salmon Conservation Units, which are salmon populations that are managed together.

Numbers indicate as follows

1 – Returns are expected to be well below average

2 – Returns expected to be below average

3 – Returns expected to be near average

4 – Abundant returns expected

DD = Data deficient

2025 Preliminary Outlook Quick Reference. Credit: DFO

Yukon / Transboundary

Conditions remain concerning across much of the region, with most populations expected to return below or well below average. There are a few bright spots, however. Taku River sockeye and chinook are forecast to be abundant in 2025, with projections well above the 10-year average.

North Coast / Central Coast

This region presents some of the more encouraging outlooks in 2025, particularly for sockeye and pink salmon, but also is an area where there is a lack of data for many populations. Nass and Skeena sockeye and pink populations are forecast at 4 (abundant). The outlook for chum returns is less positive, and chinook populations are expected to be below average across the region. 

Our Fisheries Advisor, Greg Taylor, provides additional context: “I anticipate there will be significant pink fisheries in Area 3 in 2025. Catch will be limited by the lack of processing and harvesting capacity in the north. If Alaskan pink production exceeds the forecast of 150 million pink salmon, B.C.’s lack of a sustainability certification acceptable to international buyers will become a problem for processors.

As an example, I spent some time trying to put together a deal between a large American brand known for its sustainability and some northern pink salmon producers. We came close by offering some improvements in monitoring and oversight, but in the end, the buyer said the large American retailers they deal with will not accept any salmon that was not recommended by the Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Sea Choice program or certified by the Marine Stewardship Council. DFO’s inability to convince international evaluators that its management is consistent with international best practices for a sustainable fishery is becoming an even larger problem for harvesters and processors.

When I began my career in the north, there could be 300 seine boats fishing pinks, delivering to six canneries and several freezer plants. In 2025, there may only be 20 to 25 boats fishing, delivering to only a couple of freezer plants. The canneries are long gone. But even the 20 or 25 seine boats, plus the 180+ gillnets fishing sockeye, will tax the remaining processing infrastructure. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canadian Fish sent fish to their canneries in Ketchikan to take some pressure off, and innovative processors such as North Delta Seafoods are investing in the north, but it will still be a struggle if the returns are large. 

I also foresee the possibility of good pink salmon fishing opportunities in Area 6, near Hartley Bay. But production will be hampered by the bycatch of depressed chum populations in the area. The lack of fishery-independent monitoring will allow the fleet to avoid some scrutiny, but red flags will eventually go up if there are not a lot of wild chums seen in the streams later in the season. Again, the lack of harvesting capacity may limit impacts, but unmonitored seine boats are powerful harvesting machines. A small number can have a significant impact if not carefully monitored and managed.

I was getting excited for Nass and Skeena sockeye. My guess a week or go was they would likely exceed forecasted returns. The first sockeye fishery of note in Alaska – Copper River sockeye – was seeing above-forecast returns. But the decline in stream-type wild chinook we are seeing in the US and B.C. is now showing up as far north as central Alaska, leading to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game to curtail some sockeye fishing opportunities for Copper River fishermen. Now sockeye escapement, while still okay, is not looking as robust as it was. Meanwhile, very early indications for Somass sockeye suggest they may struggle to achieve pre-season forecast levels.

It is still early, but my bad case of sockeye fever just dipped down to a more healthy range.

South Coast

Spawning sockeye salmon. Photo: Tavish Campbell

The South Coast continues to be a region of contrasts. Wild stream-type chinook populations remain deeply depleted, with outlooks showing well below average (1) returns. In contrast, hatchery and ocean-type chinook are expected to return in average to abundant numbers (3 to 4). Unfortunately, as Greg Taylor notes, they tend to overlap in B.C.’s largest chinook fishery: the south coast recreational fishery. 

Greg Taylor also offers the following insights on what to expect for the South Coast fisheries in 2025: “People should begin to see sockeye from the Barkley Sound fishery in the stores soon. Please support this well-managed fishery. The fishery is forecast to be reasonably good. Management is complicated by the less productive Henderson Lake sockeye that co-migrates with the more abundant sockeye populations returning to Sproat and Great Central Lakes.

Spawning pink salmon

I expect decent pink returns to the East Coast of Vancouver Island and large returns to the mainland inlets. It is very possible that 2025 will be the first year we begin accruing the benefits of removing industrial fish farms. Planning is underway to harvest potential surpluses in the Mainland Inlets.

Chum returns are forecast to improve slightly over 2024, with average returns (3) anticipated. But chum returns tend to be determined by marine conditions in the North Pacific during the three-plus years they spend in the ocean. We won’t have a handle on potential chum returns for a couple of months.”

Fraser River & Interior

The Fraser River and its interior tributaries continue to reflect the complex challenges facing wild salmon in southern B.C. While some populations are expected to do well in 2025, many remain at critically low levels.

Among the highlights, Chilko sockeye stand out with an abundant (4) forecast—a rare success story in the Fraser system. Similarly, Weaver and Harrison sockeye are expected to return in healthy numbers, also rated 4. As 2025 is an odd-year cycle, pink salmon are forecast to return in above-average numbers, exceeding long-term averages.

But these bright spots are exceptions. Early Stuart and Early Summer sockeye remain well below average (1), and late-run sockeye, including Shuswap, are expected to perform poorly. Cultus Lake sockeye, a genetically distinct and endangered run, are forecast at just 139 fish, far below the 15,500 lower recovery benchmark.

Greg Taylor provides a closer look at the complexities of managing Fraser River fisheries in 2025, particularly the risks to vulnerable stocks like late-timed sockeye and stream-type chinook: “The chart below, which forecasts the timing of Fraser sockeye past Mission, describes the problems inherent in trying to harvest sockeye in marine areas. Harvesting abundant summer run sockeye while avoiding Early-Stuart, Early Summers, and Late-timed sockeye is a challenge.

The Fraser River pink salmon return is forecast to exceed 29 million fish at the 50 per cent probability level, meaning it could well be smaller, or much larger, than the 29 million. This means, considering the 8.1 million escapement target, that the Total Available Catch may be in the range of 21 million fish.

However, co-migrating coho, steelhead, and late-timed sockeye will all be constraining factors. All these populations are forecast to be at levels of abundance that will allow for minimum, if any, mortality. Late-timed sockeye are of particular concern as their migration timing is similar to Fraser pink salmon. 

Managers have a plan to limit impacts on late-timed sockeye by managing the fishery to not exceed 1 per cent sockeye mortality. It sounds very low, right? But if you assume, long-term mortality of sockeye released from seines is 25 per cent (which we know from research is likely low), the proportion of sockeye in the pink catch would have to be less than four per cent. If the fleet catches 15 million pink salmon, this means they would be allowed to encounter as many as 600,000 sockeye, of which the majority will be late-run. To put this in context, the total run of late-run sockeye is forecast to be only 470,000, dominated by Weaver-enhanced sockeye. The other sockeye populations are all forecast to be well below their escapement goals. 

Pink salmon spawners. Photo: Eiko Jones

The forecast for stream-type chinook, including those from the Fraser’s upper and middle reaches, is again grim. I fear for these fish. They are the key prey for Southern Resident Killer Whales. Their numbers have dropped precipitously over the past couple of decades due to the erosion of their habitat due to climate change, along with unsustainable harvest impacts from all fisheries, including IUU (illegal, unreported and unregulated) fisheries.

Ocean-type chinook, on the other hand, are forecast to be abundant. Unfortunately, the run-timing for these fish overlaps with the run timing for some of the stream-type chinook. Managers must try to limit the impact on stream-type chinook when planning for recreational fisheries on the abundant ocean-type populations.” 

Fraser coho populations remain a major concern, with wild components still largely data deficient. Hatchery components, however, are expected to return at near-average to above-average (3 to 4) levels. Fraser chum, primarily from the flood-affected 2021 brood year, are expected to return below average (2).

Final Thoughts

DFO’s 2025 Salmon Outlook paints a varied picture. Some populations show positive signs, particularly Fraser and Skeena pink returns and select sockeye stocks, but many others continue to face serious challenges, especially stream-type chinook.

In the face of these challenges, Watershed Watch is focused on addressing the key threats to wild salmon and steelhead in 2025:

• Overfishing in various fisheries (commercial, recreational, Indigenous and IUU).
• Salmon farms that spread harmful parasites and disease to wild salmon. The federal government has committed to banning open net-pen salmon farms by 2029 and we are holding them to this promise.
• Habitat reconnection and restoration, from repairing fish passage barriers to defending intact watersheds. Through our CodeBlue BC campaign and collaboration with the BC Watershed Security Coalition, we’re advocating for better water and land use policies that prioritize salmon habitat.
• Stronger recovery actions are needed for endangered populations, especially those that remain data deficient or lack meaningful recovery planning. We’re demanding science-based decision-making and full implementation of recovery plans.

A final reflection from Greg Taylor: “We need to have a conversation about ‘trade-offs’ when it comes to recreational and commercial fishing. Throughout this blog, you read about trade-offs between conservation and unintended harvest impacts on non-target stocks and species. 

In the past, for the commercial fishery, the calculation was that taking some conservation risk could be balanced against the thousands of harvesting and shore worker jobs at stake if we did not fish. But this is no longer true. There are next to no salmon-only processing facilities left. All those shore worker jobs are gone. There are few fishers left and most of them are near retirement. Does the trade-off that allows for mixed stock marine fisheries still make sense? 

The Fraser River

The debate will be even more difficult when it comes to the recreational sector, where there is a vibrant and growing industry that is important to many coastal communities.  It is now one of the largest fisheries in B.C., yet does not produce verifiable, fishery-independent data on catch, releases, stock composition, and compliance.”

As Greg’s reflection makes clear, these are tough conversations, but they’re necessary. There’s no doubt that 2025 will be a difficult year for many salmon populations. But action is the best antidote to bad news. Through advocacy, restoration, and smart policy reform, we can help rebuild wild salmon, steelhead, and the habitats they depend on.