Each week, Watershed Watch’s fisheries advisor Greg Taylor will share his expert insights on what’s happening in B.C.’s salmon fisheries. With decades of experience in the industry, Greg offers a blend of observations, analysis, and personal perspective.

Bristol Bay Sockeye

Bristol Bay is now over. The total harvest is 41.9 million sockeye. This is about 4 million more than forecast.

Copper River Sockeye

The Copper River sockeye fishery will end up harvesting around 850,000.

Prince William Sound Pinks

After a disastrous season in 2024, it appears that PWS will, at a minimum, achieve its forecast harvest of about 60 million pink salmon, and based on current trends, may well exceed the 2025 forecast.

Chum Salmon

Chum salmon are returning strong throughout Alaska. And, as is usually the case with chums, we are seeing the same trend throughout their range, including here in B.C. Chums spend four years in the Pacific, and good environmental conditions tend to benefit most chum populations.

Southeast Alaska

Any Canadian must be offended by Alaska’s actions in Southeast Alaska. In all my years, I have not seen such a blatant targeting of Canadian salmon by Alaskan managers. Southern Southeast Alaska is seeing terrible catches of pink salmon in the inside portions of the panhandle, which is where all their southern Southeast pink and chum systems are located.

The number of seine boats fishing the inside portions is as low as I have experienced. Alaska’s Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) has shifted effort and catch to District 104, which is an interception fishery. I need not remind most readers that this type of fishery would be illegal under the Alaskan constitution if it were targeting only Alaskan stocks. But, because much of the catch is passing stocks, migrating through Alaskan waters, ADF&G does not feel the need to be concerned about the potential conservation impacts on B.C. salmon populations.

Meanwhile, because most of the fleet is fishing in District 104, intercepting passing salmon, ADF&G is able to report that escapements to their pink streams on the inside portions of the panhandle are meeting objectives. If the boats fishing District 104 were to fish the inside, targeting Alaska’s own fish, low pink abundance would force ADF&G to close the fishery, which they are unwilling to do.

So far this season, Alaskan fishermen have caught 99,500 sockeye, 40,600 coho, 2.8 million pink salmon, and 173,000 chums in District 104. The majority of the sockeye and coho are returning to northern and central B.C. watersheds. It is unclear what proportion of the pinks and chums are Canadian, as Alaska does not collect the same data on these species. I don’t mention chinook as ADF&G does not require their fishermen to record the number of chinook they catch in most weeks. On the one fishing day District 104 fishermen were allowed to keep chinook this year; they recorded a catch of 1,050. It is the same for steelhead, which are co-migrating with the sockeye. ADF&G does not require their fishermen to record the number of steelhead they kill each opening. But I know from personal experience, they kill a great number of passing steelhead in August. The District 104 fishery will continue for at least two more weeks. It would be expected that they will also begin to harvest some Fraser sockeye.

It is grotesque that the Marine Stewardship Council certifies the salmon caught in this fishery as ‘sustainably harvested.’

(Note that District 104 fishermen alone, never mind the rest of southern southeast, have caught almost half as much sockeye as the entire B.C. fleet, with almost three weeks to go in their season.)

Northern B.C. – Area 3 (Portland Canal and the Nass River) Salmon 

The 2025 Nass River sockeye and chinook salmon returns are tracking well below average, raising significant conservation and food security concerns, particularly for chinook. The projected Total Return to Canada (TRTC) for Nass sockeye is approximately 423,000, significantly lower than the long-term average of 603,000. While the Meziadin sockeye escapement through the fishway is around 79,000, which is close to the historical mean of 83,000, it remains uncertain whether the escapement goal of 160,000 will be met. Kwinageese River sockeye escapement is also well behind, with only 16 adults observed compared to the historical mean of 250.

Overall, Nass chinook returns are worse than sockeye, with a projected escapement of just 10,000, well short of the 15,000 goal. To date, only 13 Chinook have returned to Meziadin (vs. a historical mean of 130), and just 145 to Kwinageese (vs. 213), the only two places we count them in the Upper Nass. Gitanyow people located in the middle and upper Nass have been especially impacted, only being able to harvest less than 5 per cent of their Food, Social, and Ceremonial (FSC) requirement for chinook and currently only half of their typical sockeye harvest by early August. (Report provided by Mark Cleveland, Fisheries Manager for the Gitanyow Nation).

Please note that Gitanyow sockeye is recommended as a sustainable purchase by OceanWise.

Fishing for pinks in Area 3 north of Prince Rupert has been excellent, with most seine boats being able to load themselves within one or, at most, two days. There are only around 15 or 16 seine boats fishing the entire north coast. To date, the seine fleet has caught about 1.4 million pink salmon. The fleet claims it has discarded about 56,000 chums. No one knows how many they have discarded because DFO does not require fishery-independent monitoring. One must assume most of the discarded chums are unlikely to successfully spawn, as DFO does not require the fleet to fish in a manner that supports this objective. The same goes for the coho, chinook, and steelhead that the fleet is required to discard.

Research details how seiners should be operated to ensure the highest possible survival of chums discarded in the fishery: sets kept small and managed so as not to crowd the fish, remove fish from the net within 15 minutes, sort them on deck, and ensure bycatch is carefully returned to the water within 2 minutes.

None of the above is required of North Coast fishermen.

Hence, it must be assumed that chum bycatch discarded in this fishery will experience high mortality.

Don’t get me wrong, I have always believed a seine boat that adheres to the above operating requirements is just a mobile fish trap in that they can harvest the target species while successfully releasing bycatch in a manner that maximizes their chances of successfully spawning. It is the best alternative to sustainably harvest a target species in a mixed stock environment, but if DFO and industry refuse to implement the necessary measures, it is indefensible to argue this is a sustainably managed fishery.

Lack of monitoring and an inability to access discard mortality are key reasons why B.C. fisheries are unable to secure a sustainability designation from any of the major domestic or international certification organizations.

Northern B.C. – Skeena Salmon 

I reported in my last recap that DFO has somehow used the wrong multiplier to estimate the number of sockeye returning to the Skeena watershed. The mistake increased the run size to almost 1.9 million from 1.7 million. But as the run progressed, it became clear that there was no strength to the return, and we are currently back down to an estimated run size of 1.7 million. This compares to a forecast of 2.7 million.

Meanwhile, the fleet has struggled to catch their allocation of around 250,000 sockeye. To date, they have caught only about 140,000 sockeye. The fleet is, of course is enraged, arguing DFO’s mistake cost them fishing time at the peak of the return. This is no doubt true. But the fleet’s demands to open the fishery now ignores the fact that the enhanced return has passed through their fishery area and any opening now would target endangered wild sockeye populations. Local managers say industry is bypassing them and are lobbying their bosses in Vancouver. It is unclear, as I write this, what will be decided.

Update: After I wrote the above, DFO indeed reopened the gillnet fishery for another day’s fishing. If DFO had any integrity, they would tell the public that while they understand that the fishery will harvest endangered sockeye populations during the peak of the steelhead return; it would address industry demands for additional fishing time. DFO’s decision also undermines Canada’s position in negotiations with the US over District 104 interceptions as we prepare to renegotiate the Canada–US Salmon Treaty. Canada and First Nations are trying to build a collaborative position that takes on Alaska’s impact on Canada’s endangered and threatened salmon populations. It will be harder to argue this position if Canada does the same as what we are accusing Alaska of.

Upriver First Nations are arguing that there is no need to increase the pressure on these sockeye populations of concern, that they can harvest all the allowable catch in terminal areas, avoiding bycatch and conservation concerns.

About 300,000 sockeye have passed through the Babine fence so far this year. Fence counts are tracking well with an expected return of about 1.7 million.

Steelhead returns, which showed some strength at the beginning of the season, are now looking poor at about a quarter of what they were last year, as estimated by the Tyee test fishery. This is before they run the gauntlet of legal and IUU (illegal, unreported, and unregulated) in-river fisheries. The Province of B.C. wrote a letter to DFO’s Regional Director General on August 1^st requesting that DFO not open the commercial salmon fishery after August 4^th. DFO ignored this official request from B.C.

Coho returns look relatively poor. Skeena chums, which are very depressed, are being reported in fisheries and recorded in the test fishery. This is good news. Pinks remain abundant, although it appears the return peaked early and is now declining.

I am pleased to see better chinook returns to the Skeena than we have seen in recent years. The return is still much less than it was in its banner years. They may also be benefiting from this year’s recreational closures.

I must make clear that I have a conflict. As many regular readers know, I am involved in the Talok terminal fishery in Babine Lake. This is one of the fisheries Ocean Wise recommends as a sustainable choice, as it has minimal impacts on any co-migrating stocks and species. I believe we should all cooperate to support every fishery in its effort to catch its allocation of enhanced sockeye, if it can do so with minimal impacts on endangered sockeye populations and other species.

Because gillnets are not selective and neither are seines, as they are currently managed, this means that marine commercial fisheries should be restricted to when the peak of the enhanced fish are passing through the commercial fishing area. I believe all participants in the fishery need to collaborate to encourage actions that would allow the marine sector to harvest their allocation within this timing window.

However, I think, and so does DFO’s Allocation Policy, that if the marine sector cannot harvest its allocation in a selective manner within this window, any uncaught allocation should move upriver to selective fisheries operating under the same licence. In this case, it is First Nation’s in-river/lake selective commercial fisheries.

Area 6 Pink Salmon

There are reports that early pink salmon were abundant in Area 6. The first seine opening was July 24th. It appears as if the pink salmon had moved out of the open fishing area and into the inlets by the time the fishery opened. We have to wait to see if the later (outside) timed pink salmon arrive in any strength.

It will be interesting to see if Areas 7 and 8 see better pink and chum returns this year. First reports are that pinks are showing through both areas, but not at strengths that might support a fishery. I am encouraged to hear of reasonable chum returns in some of the wild streams. The Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative fishery closures appear to be having a benefit for both chums and species caught as bycatch, such as chinook.

Somass (Barkley Sound) Sockeye

The Barkley Sound commercial sockeye fishery is likely over for 2025. The later part of the return was not as strong as expected, leaving most gear groups over their allowable catch at the current run size estimate.

Fraser Sockeye

Except that using the term ‘Fraser sockeye’ is misleading. There are 24 sockeye Conservation Units (CU) in the Fraser watershed. Twelve are in the red and red/amber zone, meaning they can tolerate limited, if any, fishing pressure. The rest are in the amber, amber-green, or green zones, meaning they can handle limited to aggressive fishing pressure. But this only begins to capture the diversity and complexity of Fraser sockeye. For instance, the Early Stuart sockeye CU alone has 23 genetically distinct populations. I often say the only thing Fraser sockeye populations have in common is that they all pass under the Port Mann Bridge.

For management purposes, Fraser sockeye are divided into four run-timing groups: Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summers, and Late-Summer. Think of four overlapping bell curves. This, along with recognizing that CUs within a run-timing group come from widely distributed parts of the province, have different Wild Salmon Policy status (red, amber, green), and abundance, will give you some understanding of the challenge managers from the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC) face when making management decisions.

Early Stuart sockeye are now expected to return at 7X their 2025 (50p; median) forecast! This year’s return hasn’t been seen since the 1970s. This is an extraordinarily exciting event, but not entirely unexpected to long-term observers of Fraser sockeye. Early Stuart sockeye have, throughout their existence, often been reduced to very small numbers due to in-river migration blockages. It proves once again that if we give salmon the opportunity, they can recover. Early indications are that Early Stuart sockeye had relatively low in-river mortality as they completed much of their migration before water temperatures began to spike and flows dropped. This, again, is great news.

Early-summer sockeye are returning about 1/3 above their 2025 forecast (390,000 versus 221,000 forecast). This suite of CUs contains populations from the Pitt River near Maple Ridge, through Francois Lake, well west of Vanderhoof.

The summer run timing group is where all the focus lies in 2025. This timing group consists of CUs west of Prince George, Chilko Lake (where the large slide occurred in 2024), and Quesnel Lake. The 2025 run size is currently pegged at 4.8 million compared to its forecast of 2.13 million.

The late-timed group consists of Harrison Lake, Shuswap Lake complex (incl. Adams River), and Cultus Lake. It is too early to predict the run size. Test fishing indicates it may be larger than forecast. This run-timing group is expected to have very high in-river mortality.

In order to protect the much weaker early-summer and late-summer run-timing groups, PSC managers have determined that they should only be subject to a maximum harvest rate of 10 percent at the 50p. The qualifier to this is that the early-summer exploitation rate can increase with run size. Lates are held to 10 per cent.

Now think about my description of the four run timing groups overlapping across their return. Managers must try and harvest abundant Late Stuart and Chilko summer runs while restricting the harvest of early-summer and late-summer sockeye to a maximum of 10 per cent.

All this is before we have to consider the in-river environmental conditions through which the sockeye must migrate. Fraser water levels are 36 per cent below average, and temperatures are 2.4 degrees above average (20.6 degrees as of August 7^th, as opposed to the average of 18.2 degrees: lower Fraser). In some tributaries, temperatures are approaching temperatures that can be lethal for salmon. Recent research indicates that in-river survival decreases rapidly when water temperatures exceed 15 degrees. (Atlas et al, 2021). PSC managers believe in-river mortality rates could be between 30 and 50 per cent. Hence, the numbers of sockeye recorded in abundant test fishing samples and at Mission could be vastly different from what will be seen on the spawning grounds.

These are the risks managers must negotiate. The rewards? The rewards in this trade-off between conservation risk and economic benefits are based on a fishing economy that no longer exists. There are no significant canneries or processors left on the south coast that rely mostly on salmon. The salmon fleets are a shadow of their former numbers. Whereas salmon used to be a significant employer in southern B.C., it is now an afterthought to most businesses. Yes, salmon still captures the imagination, but the economy has moved on. Yet, we cling to the old paradigm. Having argued the above, I spent my career with the people remaining in the industry. I want to see them get an opportunity to fish Fraser sockeye again. But I am unsure younger people would share my bias.

Commercial fishers are watching summer run returns with much anticipation. There are clearly sufficient summer run sockeye to open a fishery, but how to do so without impacting the other run-timing groups and recognizing that temperatures are forecast to be above thresholds will come under intense debate at the Friday PSC meeting. Managers will have to decide if, how large, when, and where an opening will occur.

First Nations began fishing for FSC on August 6^th. The Americans also began fishing this week.

UPDATE: As of Friday afternoon: Area 29 (Fraser River) will open for seines and troll for four days beginning Saturday. This is an Individual Transferable Quota (ITQ) fishery. DFO has yet to announce the target quota. The total quota will be allocated equally between the seine licenceholders, so each has an individual quota. The vessels that will be fishing (far fewer than the number of licences) will accumulate the individual quotas. They will fish until the total quota is achieved. If you have access to a boat, it is always interesting to go out on the water to watch the fleet at work.

UPDATE #2: AS OF FRIDAY, AUGUST 8, AT 6.30 PM, DFO CANCELLED THE OPENING BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT LATE RUN IMPACTS. Both summer run and late run abundance estimates will need to be increased to allow for an opening. (This is the trouble with writing these reports in ‘real time’.)

Fraser River Chinook

All I can say at this time is that there are encouraging signs we may be seeing some improvement in some endangered Fraser chinook populations (summer 5-2s) in 2025. The more abundant Fraser 4-1 chinook salmon are beginning to show in strength.

South Coast Pinks

Test fishing in Johnstone Straits is indicating a high number of pink salmon are migrating through the straits. It appears that the Fraser may indeed have a large return of pink salmon as forecast.

Greg will be providing weekly fisheries updates, which we will publish here on Fridays. Stay tuned.

Read Previous Weekly Updates

July 17, 2025

July 24, 2025

August 1, 2025