Note: This blog is Part One of the 2026 Salmon Outlook recap, which focusses on the environmental conditions in marine and freshwater habitats that affect salmon survival, and that are used to predict salmon returns for this year. Part Two will focus on anticipated salmon returns in 2026.

Each year, Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s Salmon Outlook draws on biological data and environmental indicators to forecast how many salmon may return to B.C. rivers. We at Watershed Watch take this information, add in other indicators, past experience, and what we have learned talking to people engaged in salmon management and monitoring up and down the coast, and try to provide you the best forecast we can on what might be expected for the 2026 salmon season.

Expected salmon abundance is notoriously difficult to predict. The number of brood year spawners is, of course, a significant determinant in how many salmon we might expect. Increasingly, however, it is the unstable and unpredictable conditions in freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, in which B.C.’s 409 individual salmon populations are born, rear, live, and migrate through, that govern their productivity and expected abundance. 

Fisheries Advisor Greg Taylor

Take this winter for example. We are in a waning La Niña. Many experts predicted a cool winter with an average or better amount of snow at higher elevations. Instead, for the first time in most people’s memory, Babine Lake did not fully freeze over.

On the south coast, while most are looking forward to spring, many of us involved in the fishery had been made nervous by the signs of an early spring along with a very low snow pack. We were praying (sorry) for a very cool, wet spring with lots of snow at higher elevations. March, as I write this, is delivering on our prayers. But the benefits are unevenly distributed through the province with northwestern B.C. and the upper Fraser now well above their average snow packs and southern B.C. and Vancouver Island below.

What we are seeing this spring will likely have a bearing on the salmon populations beginning their migration home to B.C. streams and those rearing in lakes and streams throughout the province. We tend to believe we can foresee the challenges that returning salmon will face. But what we really need to learn is that with climate change accelerating, we don’t really have any idea what the near future holds—never mind the medium or long term—other than we are on a runaway train. Salmon forecasting used to be a mix of science, past experience, and educated guesses founded on both. However, both science based on past trends, and past experience, have become less informative. Educated guesses are now best guesses.

Early in my career, we could have good salmon years and poor salmon years, but we most often had fisheries. Not only was the base abundance much higher, the range of expected environmental conditions was much narrower. This lowered the risk of management error. Today, the tolerances for any management errors are much lower. 

Photo: Tavish Campbell

So as you read our upcoming 2026 forecast, remember that these are all ‘paper’ salmon. Nothing can be counted on until we see salmon successfully spawn. For instance, the Pacific Salmon Commission’s in-season estimate (as of Sept 13) for Early Stuart sockeye was that 725,000 sockeye entered the Fraser River. Of these, only 215,000 reached their spawning grounds due to unfavourable migration conditions in the Fraser River.

With this uncertainty, along with reduced in-season fisheries, environmental, and ecological monitoring, managers need to be highly precautionary when deciding on potential fishing opportunities. This is always challenging for managers when faced with the vociferous demands of their clients: the 5 to 7 per cent of B.C. residents who actively fish for salmon.

To forecast salmon numbers expected to return in 2026, we must board a time machine to travel back through the years 2021 to 2025 to review the conditions salmon returning in 2026 may have encountered. Conditions that were shaped by a rapidly warming climate layered with ocean cycles that no longer behave as predictably as they once did.

What emerges from the data is not a simple good-news or bad-news story, but one defined by variability and growing uncertainty. For instance, there was a massive, intense warm water ‘blob’ in the western Pacific, whereas our side of the Pacific was much cooler (see the discussion of the current Pacific Decadal Oscillation below).

We know this has had a negative impact on Russian and Japanese salmon abundance. We will find out in a few months if the cooler waters on our side of the Pacific benefited B.C. salmon productivity. I am hoping it means we will see a return to more average productivity for many of our wild salmon populations that did not spend their first year (or years) rearing in freshwater streams, such as lake sockeye, pinks, chums, and some populations of chinook.

Which salmon are returning, and why timing matters

All five species of Pacific salmon will return to B.C. waterways in 2026. But they did not experience the same environments on their journey, nor were they shaped by the same conditions during their early life stages.

Chart showing the species of salmon returning in 2026, as well as when they were occupying fresh or saltwater habitats. Credit: MacDonald et al. 2026 (DFO’s 2026 Salmon Outlook Presentation)

Salmon differ not only in how long they live, but in how much time they spend in freshwater versus the ocean. Those differences matter, because climate-driven changes do not affect rivers and oceans in the same way, or at the same time.

Pink salmon have the shortest life cycle. With just two years from birth to spawning, the pink salmon returning in 2026 were laid as eggs in freshwater in 2024 and spent most of their lives at sea during 2025. They tend to spawn in lower reaches of coastal rivers and migrate earlier in the season, which can spare them from the most extreme late-summer heat and low flows that affect interior stocks. But, because they tend to migrate from freshwater to marine environments in a short time frame, negative or positive conditions in their estuarine and/or marine environments can lead to abrupt and unpredictable changes in abundance. Forecasting pink salmon returns is therefore a perilous endeavour.

Chum salmon also move to sea shortly after emerging from the gravel. While they live longer than pinks, they also spend relatively little time rearing in freshwater, making them less vulnerable to prolonged drought and warm river conditions, though still sensitive to changes in coastal marine productivity. Chums, like pinks, are unpredictable, but their longer marine phase can temper their volatility. Chum abundance is often linked to the type, and abundance, of prey in their marine environment. 

Sockeye, coho, and chinook exhibit far more diverse life histories, and this is where freshwater environmental conditions become especially important. Many sockeye spend one or two years rearing in lakes before migrating to sea. Coho and stream-type chinook often rear in streams for one year, sometimes more. For these fish, freshwater conditions in the years leading up to ocean entry strongly influence survival once they reach the marine environment. The same goes for steelhead. Many interior steelhead populations can spend several years in freshwater before migrating to sea.

Photo: Tavish Campbell

Climate change as the backdrop

Rising global greenhouse gas emissions continue to drive higher air and ocean temperatures. That long-term warming trend now underpins everything from river flows to ocean productivity. Natural climate patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño and La Niña oscillations still influence year-to-year conditions, but they operate on top of a warming baseline that is pushing ecosystems beyond historic norms. Again, one only needs to look at the intense blob in the western Pacific. This is a very unusual event in a La Niña cycle. The forecast El Niño cycle will build upon already warm marine waters.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), is a long-term water temperature pattern in the North Pacific. The current PDO, which began in 2019, is currently the strongest negative PDO on record. Negative PDOs are associatated with colder-than-average ocean temperatures along the West Coast of B.C. Graph: NOAA

La Niña years are typically cooler and more productive for B.C. salmon, while El Niño years tend to bring warmer, less productive conditions. El Niño and La Niña cycles flow across the top of the long term temperature patterns in eastern Pacific waters that define the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The current PDO, which began in 2019, is currently the strongest negative PDO on record.

It is unclear, as of this writing, if we will see a switch to a warmer PDO cycle (which would be bad news indeed, if we were to also see an El Niño cycle developing), or if the cool trend will continue. Climate change has made forecasting what will likely happen challenging. However, based on past records, we would expect to see a return to a positive PDO that will bring warmer ocean temperatures to our side of the pacific. What’s next? Who knows?

What we do know is that the cool PDO we are currently in tends to benefit pacific salmon returning to North America. Both the PDO and the next El Niño/La Niña cycle will bear close watching as we appear to be at an important juncture for both this spring.

Forecasts predict a shift from neutral conditions this spring to El Niño conditions in the summer and fall. El Niño conditions are typically associated with warmer and drier conditions. Image provided by The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School https://iri.columbia.edu/ENSO

Historically, these cycles explained much of the variability in salmon survival. Today, they still matter, but they no longer operate in isolation as they are accompanied by climate change impacts on freshwater environments discussed below.

Photo: Tavish Campbell

Freshwater: compounding stress year after year

2021 marked the beginning of a particularly stressful freshwater era in B.C. That year brought an unprecedented June heatwave, followed by widespread drought and later by extreme flooding in the Lower Fraser and other communities, caused by atmospheric rivers. While the long-term impacts of flooding on wild salmon populations are still being studied, the heat and drought is well understood to increase stress on spawning adults, incubating eggs, and juvenile salmon rearing in streams and lakes.

In 2022, snowpack was high and spring runoff was strong, but summer quickly turned hot and dry. Drought conditions arrived later in the season and persisted into October and November, creating difficult conditions for salmon migrating to their spawning grounds. Warm water temperatures and low flows increase energetic costs for fish and can reduce spawning success.

Conditions worsened further in 2023. An early heat spike in May rapidly melted snowpacks, and low precipitation through the summer led to extreme drought across much of the province. In some watersheds, fish protection orders were issued to maintain minimum flows for fish. That same year also became the worst wildfire season on record in B.C.

Wildfires affect salmon both immediately and over time. Sediment from burned slopes enters waterways where it can damage gills and smother eggs, bare slopes are prone to landslides that can block spawning habitat, and the loss of riparian vegetation reduces stream shade, leading to warmer water temperatures. 

These legacy effects can persist for years, compounding the impacts of drought and heat.

Freshwater systems entered 2024 already depleted. Snowpack remained low, and 2024 became the second warmest year on record in B.C., while also ranking as the warmest year globally. Dry conditions persisted across much of the province, and water temperatures frequently exceeded thresholds known to stress salmon. Temperatures above roughly 18 to 20 degrees Celsius impair migration, reduce disease resistance, and increase mortality.

These conditions disproportionately affect salmon that spend extended time rearing in freshwater, including many sockeye, coho, stream-type chinook, and steelhead populations. 

Copepods Photo: Fisheries and Oceans Canada | Moira Galbraith | Creative Commons

Food webs: signals without clear answers

Zooplankton communities are a key indicator of marine conditions for salmon. In warm years, southern copepod species tend to dominate coastal waters. These species are less nutritious and lower in fat, and their presence has historically been associated with poor salmon survival. Cooler years usually favour larger, fattier boreal and subarctic zooplankton species that provide higher-quality food.

In recent years, those relationships have become less predictable. Zooplankton indicators across the region have shown broadly positive signals, even as ocean temperatures continue to rise. In the Strait of Georgia, zooplankton abundance has increased, which is generally considered a positive sign for juvenile salmon that rely on copepods early in their marine life.

Why these signals are emerging now is not fully understood. The result is increased uncertainty in how reliably our traditional indicators can predict salmon survival.

Forage fish and cautious optimism

Herring, an important forage fish for chinook and coho, show some encouraging trends on the south coast. We have also seen significant increases in mackerel and sandlance biomass in the Salish Sea. Both are important forage fish for chinook and coho. In fact, the Salish Sea remains in a very productive regime for many species. We have seen these cycles come and go before. But again, due to climate change, what has occurred in the past is not a good predictor of what the future may bring.

While biomass of many types of forage fish have increased in certain areas, offering a potential boost to marine survival; there are also concerning regional declines in herring abundance, including around Haida Gwaii, underscoring how uneven these signals remain.

Additional stressors in the marine environment

Climate change is not the only pressure salmon face in the ocean. While not a focus of DFO’s Salmon Outlook presentation, open-net pen salmon farms can contribute additional stress through the amplification and spread of parasites and pathogens, including sea lice and disease, particularly in narrow migration corridors used by juvenile salmon.

In this context, the recent decision to keep open-net pen salmon farms out of the Discovery Islands is welcome news. The Discovery Islands are a critical early marine migration route for Fraser River salmon, and reducing disease and parasite pressure in this region removes one known, preventable source of risk at a time when climate-driven stressors are already intensifying.

The Federal Court of Appeals upheld the Fisheries Minister’s decision to remove factory fish farms from the Discovery Islands earlier this year.

Last year’s sockeye return was about average. It just seemed so much better because we measured it against the last couple of decades of poor returns. That it coincided with the removal of fish farms is an encouraging sign, but not definitive. Last year’s return also coincided with increased productivity in the Salish Sea in 2024, when last year’s Fraser sockeye smolts entered the ocean. Do not get me wrong. I am very encouraged and excited to have fish farms out of migration areas. It was clearly the correct and necessary decision. It is just that it is too early to draw conclusions on how large the benefits will be or how to disentangle them from other potential influences on salmon productivity.

What it all adds up to

Freshwater environments over the past several years have been marked by extreme heat, drought, and wildfire. These conditions generally reduce salmon survival, particularly for stocks that spend extended time in freshwater habitats. In the ocean, warming trends continue, marine heatwaves are setting records, and while some food-web indicators appear positive, they come with heightened uncertainty as we stare down potential changes in the PDO and an increasing expectation that this summer will bring another El Niño.

Taken together, these conditions point toward average to below average survival for many salmon populations returning in 2026, with outcomes likely to vary widely by species, region, and life history. The stronger-than-anticipated Fraser River sockeye return in 2025 serves as a reminder that salmon can still surprise us, but it does not negate the broader trajectory.

What we are seeing now is not a temporary anomaly. It is the expression of climate change reshaping the environments salmon depend on. The question is no longer whether conditions will continue to change, but how quickly, and whether we will act fast enough to ensure wild salmon can persist, and whether large-scale mixed-stock salmon fisheries can be maintained, through what comes next. Especially at a time when DFO is cutting budgets for fisheries, environmental, and ecological monitoring. 

It is concerning to consider we may be entering a regime where the climate, the PDO, and a new El Niño may all trend against B.C.’s wild salmon. Every returning salmon in 2026 may be a critical investment in their future if we do see an abrupt decline in their productivity beginning in 2027. Precaution should underlay all 2026 management decisions. 

Stay tuned for Part Two where we’ll recap anticipated salmon returns for 2026.

Sockeye Salmon Photo: Tavish Campbell