This Week in Salmon Fisheries: Fraser Frustrations, Nass Struggles, and Alaska Closes Late – Aug 22
August 22, 2025
By: Greg Taylor
Each week, Watershed Watch’s fisheries advisor Greg Taylor will share his expert insights on what’s happening in B.C.’s salmon fisheries. With decades of experience in the industry, Greg offers a blend of observations, analysis, and personal perspective.
Southeast Alaska
It is clear that the Southern Southeast pink salmon return is very poor compared to the forecast or the brood year. Most fisheries are beginning to taper off. The District 104 (D104) interception fishery has diminished in intensity as there are fewer passing stocks to intercept. Canada will have to consider how Alaska focused their effort and catch in D104 at a time when they knew their own pink stocks (the target species) were weaker than forecast. It will be an interesting discussion as talks resume for the renegotiation of the Canada-US Salmon Treaty.
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game just announced that D104 will be closed during the next opening. Thanks, guys. Talk about bolting the barn door after the horse escaped.
Northern B.C. – Area 3 (Portland Canal and the Nass River) Salmon
As the fishing season nears its end in northern British Columbia, the Nass River sockeye salmon returns are tracking well below average. There is growing concern that the sockeye are either late in reaching the spawning grounds or that earlier estimates of abundance have overestimated the size of the run. Currently, the projected Total Return to Canada (TRTC) for Nass sockeye is approximately 420,000 fish, which is significantly lower than the long-term average of 603,000.
Preliminary in-season harvest estimates show that the Area 3 commercial seine and gillnet fisheries have caught around 32,200 Nass-bound sockeye. The Nisga’a Nation has harvested approximately 95,000 sockeye across Treaty, demonstration, and FSC (food, social, and ceremonial) fisheries. In addition, other First Nations groups, including Lax’kwaalams, Metlakatla, and Gitanyow, have harvested about 16,500 sockeye through both FSC and commercial fisheries combined for a combined 34 per cent exploitation rate.
Upriver, only two in-season sockeye abundance estimates are currently available, both of which are trailing behind expected levels. At the Meziadin fishway, which typically accounts for about 75 per cent of all Nass sockeye returns, escapement is approximately 103,000 fish, roughly 20 per cent below the historical average of 123,000. The escapement goal for Meziadin is 160,000 sockeye, and current projections suggest that around 157,000 may reach the area. However, this estimate does not account for the remaining harvest that could still take place. The Gitanyow have only harvested 4,000 of their 10,000 FSC allocation and are still authorized to harvest an additional 4,500 through their inland commercial fishery. Considering the low Meziadin return, the Gitanyow Chiefs have decided to halt their economic fisheries until further notice, shifting focus to meeting their food fish requirements.
Currently, the only other sockeye-targeting fisheries still operating in the Nass River are the Nisga’a, who are planning another four openings in the lower river this week. Beyond Meziadin, the only other available upriver data comes from the Kwinageese River, where just 1,000 adult sockeye have been observed; less than half the recent historical mean of over 2,400 for this time of year.
While the sockeye returns have been disappointing this season, the outlook for Nass River chinook salmon is even more troubling. The current projected escapement is just over 10,000 fish, falling well short of the 15,000 fish conservation goal. In the upper Nass, only two sites provide in-season chinook counts — and the numbers are sobering. Just 29 chinook have returned to Meziadin, compared to a historical average of 200. Meanwhile, the Kwinageese River has seen 467 chinook, which is close to its long-term average of 453, but still not enough to offset the overall shortfall.
A preliminary in-season run reconstruction shows that over 4,800 chinook were harvested by the Nisga’a Nation, with an additional 300 taken in the marine recreational fishery. (This does not include any estimate for the number of chinook that perished after being discarded in the poorly monitored commercial and recreational fisheries.) Other Nass First Nations harvested approximately 140 chinook for food, social, and ceremonial purposes.
The situation is particularly dire for the Gitanyow people in the middle and upper Nass regions, who have been able to harvest less than 5 per cent of their FSC chinook requirement. This shortfall is raising serious concerns around both conservation and food security.
These reports on the Nass River returns would not be possible without the comprehensive weekly reports provided by the Nisga’a and Gitanyow, and other Nass First Nations. They are of a very high professional standard.
Fishing for pinks in Area 3, north of Prince Rupert, was good. The seine fleet has caught about 1.4 million pink salmon. The fleet claims it has discarded about 56,000 chums. No one knows how many they actually discarded because DFO does not require fishery-independent monitoring. One must assume most of the discarded chums are unlikely to successfully spawn as DFO does not require the fleet to fish in a manner that supports this objective. The same goes for the coho, chinook, and steelhead that the fleet is required to discard.
Northern B.C. – Skeena Salmon
The current in-season forecast for Skeena sockeye is for just under 1.7 million. This compares to the pre-season forecast of 2.7 million.
About 650,000 sockeye have passed through the Babine fence so far this year. Fence counts are tracking a bit behind what might be expected for a Tyee escapement estimate of 1.4 million. (The difference between the 1.7 million mentioned above and the 1.4 million escapement past Tyee is that the 1.7 million is how many sockeye are thought to have entered Canadian waters. It is the TRTC: Total Return to Canada. The difference is what are thought to have been caught in various fisheries before the Tyee test fishery, which is located just upstream of the Skeena River’s estuary.)
Steelhead returns, which showed some strength at the beginning of the season, are now looking very poor, as estimated by the Tyee test fishery. They are currently tracking to be the 9th worst on record. Recall that this estimate is before they run the gauntlet of legal and IUU (illegal, unreported, and unregulated) in-river fisheries.
The Province of B.C. estimates the escapement of steelhead, as estimated at Tyee, (before any additional in-river mortality), is sufficient so as not to require any restrictions on the recreational fishery. The Province has complained to the Department about the 2025 commercial fishery. DFO’s response is essentially, ‘if you are satisfied that the number of steelhead reaching their rivers satisfies conservation objectives; what’s your problem?’.
Skeena coho look relatively poor.
Skeena chums, which are very depressed, are being reported in fisheries and recorded in the test fishery. This is good news.
Pinks remain abundant, although it appears the return peaked early, is now declining, and won’t be nearly as large as it looked earlier in the season.
I am pleased to see better chinook returns to the Skeena than we have seen in recent years. The return is still much less than it was in its banner years. They may also be benefiting from this year’s recreational closures.
Fishing has now started on Babine Lake, near the Fulton and Pinkut enhancement facilities, now that the facilities have secured the sockeye they required for population enhancement.
The Lake Babine Nation has chosen to no longer harvest its commercial allocation at the Babine Fence (where the Nation has harvested its sockeye for the past 8,000+ years) so as not to add to the over-harvesting of its wild sockeye populations. Instead, it will be fishing its commercial allocation terminally. This comes with significant economic cost. But LBN leadership say they don’t want to be another management agency that puts money over conservation and thereby contributes to the further decline of the Skeena’s wild sockeye populations.
Much of the information in this report is gathered from daily technical updates provided by Andy Rosenberger through the Skeena First Nations Technical Committee (SFNTC), along with comprehensive weekly reports put out by DFO, Alaska, and the Province of B.C.
Area 6 Pink Salmon
Stan, the longtime Area 6 charter patrolman, reports that there are excellent escapements of pink salmon throughout the area relative to the brood year. Like Skeena pinks, their timing was earlier than normal. By the time the area was opened for seines on July 24th, the bulk of the run had moved through the fishing area and into the channels. Chums are not great relative to the brood year. As Stan says, it takes an experienced eye to count chum salmon as they blend into the gravel. He can compare escapement trends across years, but it is difficult to produce accurate counts. This is the risk of DFO cutting funding for guardians such as Stan. I fear for the future if we lose him and his colleagues to the upcoming draconian budget cuts coming in the next two years.
Somass (Barkley Sound) Sockeye
The Barkley Sound commercial sockeye fishery is over for 2025. The total catch was around 270,000. Escapements are 375,000, well below the 535,000 target. The harvest rate was 42 per cent, which is over what it should have been for this run size. The return was clearly early and didn’t support later timed fisheries. Having said the above, escapements exceeded the biological reference goals of all three systems that support the fishery.
It is interesting that the total harvest rate on Barkley Sound sockeye will be around 42 per cent. The total harvest rate on the Skeena (with its abundant interception and bycatch issues), not including unregulated fisheries, will be much less than half this. It speaks to the complexity of managing Skeena sockeye. Barkley managers have three sockeye populations to contend with. Skeena managers must somehow balance the biological and ecological demands of 29 sockeye conservation units (CUs) and many more pink, coho, chum, chinook, and steelhead CUs. Also, Skeena managers have to contend with the impact of Alaskan interceptions. It is an impossible task, as evidenced by the state of many Skeena populations.
Management in Barkley Sound has switched over to the harvesting of enhanced chinook. The peak weeks for this fishery are from the last week of August through the first two weeks of September. Initial escapements of enhanced chinook look positive.
Fraser Sockeye
Are Canadian commercial fishermen right to be frustrated about how many Fraser sockeye they have been allowed to harvest? I think so. Having said this, I don’t think we can lay the blame fully on DFO or the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC). I think we all just forgot our undergrad courses in statistics.
To set up the discussion, thus far (August 19th), Canadian commercial fishermen have caught about 158,000 sockeye out of a forecast run of around 9 million. In the interests of clarity, Canadian First Nations have so far caught 480,000 sockeye. The total catch of Fraser sockeye, including the US catch (300,000), is currently around 978,000. By way of comparison, Barkley Sound sockeye had a 42 per cent exploitation rate, the Skeena around 20 per cent, while the Fraser so far stands at around 11 per cent.
All the planning that went into this year’s Fraser sockeye fishery was founded on the 50p (median) forecast of around 2.9 million sockeye. But what the forecast actually indicated was a wide range: think of a bell curve with p10 on the far left and p90 on the far right. The number of returning sockeye relative to p10 was 736,000 and p90 was 13 million. The 2.9 million was the median of the forecasts, which means it had the highest probability of happening. But there was a probability that any outcome between the 750,000 and 13 million was possible, especially considering the uncertainties in the forecast that DFO scientists were very clear about pre-season. Think about the range of possible outcomes between 750,000 and 13 million!
But all the energy, from everyone involved, went into planning for a p50 return of only 2.9 million and devising constraints to ensure sufficient spawners escaped fisheries and survived various scenarios for in-river mortality based on possible river temperatures and flows.
No one asked the obvious question, ‘What if?’ What if the return was much more abundant than the p50? If it were less than forecast, there would be zero fisheries and people, commercial fishermen included, would have accepted that.
Consider that, while the p50 forecast was for 2.9 million, the median abundance for this cycle line is almost 8 million. A larger return was therefore very possible.
So, here we are, with a return of about 9 million and no way to escape the management handcuffs managers and stakeholders put on themselves pre-season. It must be said that there was wide consultation on the plan, but the broad-scale planning and consultations never entertained a serious discussion on the ‘what ifs’. We never thought about why we should put the same handcuffs on managers for a run of 10 million as we did for a return of 2.9 million.
So should Canadian commercial fishermen feel frustrated that they are being allowed only very limited fishing opportunities on one of the larger returns in this cycle line? Sure they should.
Based on the PSC’s analysis of late-run abundance, which are the run-timing group constraining fisheries, even if as many fish die en route as the worst-case scenario, this year will see one of the largest spawning escapements in many decades for this cycle line. There is clearly sufficient fish available to allow Canadian fishermen cautious access to abundant summer-run sockeye, while ensuring sufficient late-run sockeye make it to the spawning grounds.
However, we all forgot our statistics 101 courses and didn’t bother to read DFO Science’s ‘fine print’. And, here we are.
I would also remind the reader that this discussion is not driven by concern over fishing pressure or catch. It is driven by climate change. The problem is not that there are insufficient sockeye available. There are more than enough late-run sockeye in the marine area to allow for a large commercial fishery. It is the concern that two-thirds of them may die en route to their spawning grounds due to high Fraser River water temperatures and low flows.
South Coast Pinks
Test fishing in Johnstone Straits and Area 20 remains strong. But I am getting the feeling the Fraser pink salmon return may not be as high as the p50 forecast of 27 million (12.6 million at p10 and 58 million at p90). There is certainly some strength to the return, but it may not pan out to be as large as many forecast.
Greg will be providing weekly fisheries updates, which we will publish here on Fridays. Stay tuned.
Read Previous Weekly Updates
Share This Story!
This Week in Salmon Fisheries: Fraser Frustrations, Nass Struggles, and Alaska Closes Late – Aug 22
August 22, 2025
By: Greg Taylor
Each week, Watershed Watch’s fisheries advisor Greg Taylor will share his expert insights on what’s happening in B.C.’s salmon fisheries. With decades of experience in the industry, Greg offers a blend of observations, analysis, and personal perspective.
Southeast Alaska
It is clear that the Southern Southeast pink salmon return is very poor compared to the forecast or the brood year. Most fisheries are beginning to taper off. The District 104 (D104) interception fishery has diminished in intensity as there are fewer passing stocks to intercept. Canada will have to consider how Alaska focused their effort and catch in D104 at a time when they knew their own pink stocks (the target species) were weaker than forecast. It will be an interesting discussion as talks resume for the renegotiation of the Canada-US Salmon Treaty.
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game just announced that D104 will be closed during the next opening. Thanks, guys. Talk about bolting the barn door after the horse escaped.
Northern B.C. – Area 3 (Portland Canal and the Nass River) Salmon
As the fishing season nears its end in northern British Columbia, the Nass River sockeye salmon returns are tracking well below average. There is growing concern that the sockeye are either late in reaching the spawning grounds or that earlier estimates of abundance have overestimated the size of the run. Currently, the projected Total Return to Canada (TRTC) for Nass sockeye is approximately 420,000 fish, which is significantly lower than the long-term average of 603,000.
Preliminary in-season harvest estimates show that the Area 3 commercial seine and gillnet fisheries have caught around 32,200 Nass-bound sockeye. The Nisga’a Nation has harvested approximately 95,000 sockeye across Treaty, demonstration, and FSC (food, social, and ceremonial) fisheries. In addition, other First Nations groups, including Lax’kwaalams, Metlakatla, and Gitanyow, have harvested about 16,500 sockeye through both FSC and commercial fisheries combined for a combined 34 per cent exploitation rate.
Upriver, only two in-season sockeye abundance estimates are currently available, both of which are trailing behind expected levels. At the Meziadin fishway, which typically accounts for about 75 per cent of all Nass sockeye returns, escapement is approximately 103,000 fish, roughly 20 per cent below the historical average of 123,000. The escapement goal for Meziadin is 160,000 sockeye, and current projections suggest that around 157,000 may reach the area. However, this estimate does not account for the remaining harvest that could still take place. The Gitanyow have only harvested 4,000 of their 10,000 FSC allocation and are still authorized to harvest an additional 4,500 through their inland commercial fishery. Considering the low Meziadin return, the Gitanyow Chiefs have decided to halt their economic fisheries until further notice, shifting focus to meeting their food fish requirements.
Currently, the only other sockeye-targeting fisheries still operating in the Nass River are the Nisga’a, who are planning another four openings in the lower river this week. Beyond Meziadin, the only other available upriver data comes from the Kwinageese River, where just 1,000 adult sockeye have been observed; less than half the recent historical mean of over 2,400 for this time of year.
While the sockeye returns have been disappointing this season, the outlook for Nass River chinook salmon is even more troubling. The current projected escapement is just over 10,000 fish, falling well short of the 15,000 fish conservation goal. In the upper Nass, only two sites provide in-season chinook counts — and the numbers are sobering. Just 29 chinook have returned to Meziadin, compared to a historical average of 200. Meanwhile, the Kwinageese River has seen 467 chinook, which is close to its long-term average of 453, but still not enough to offset the overall shortfall.
A preliminary in-season run reconstruction shows that over 4,800 chinook were harvested by the Nisga’a Nation, with an additional 300 taken in the marine recreational fishery. (This does not include any estimate for the number of chinook that perished after being discarded in the poorly monitored commercial and recreational fisheries.) Other Nass First Nations harvested approximately 140 chinook for food, social, and ceremonial purposes.
The situation is particularly dire for the Gitanyow people in the middle and upper Nass regions, who have been able to harvest less than 5 per cent of their FSC chinook requirement. This shortfall is raising serious concerns around both conservation and food security.
These reports on the Nass River returns would not be possible without the comprehensive weekly reports provided by the Nisga’a and Gitanyow, and other Nass First Nations. They are of a very high professional standard.
Fishing for pinks in Area 3, north of Prince Rupert, was good. The seine fleet has caught about 1.4 million pink salmon. The fleet claims it has discarded about 56,000 chums. No one knows how many they actually discarded because DFO does not require fishery-independent monitoring. One must assume most of the discarded chums are unlikely to successfully spawn as DFO does not require the fleet to fish in a manner that supports this objective. The same goes for the coho, chinook, and steelhead that the fleet is required to discard.
Northern B.C. – Skeena Salmon
The current in-season forecast for Skeena sockeye is for just under 1.7 million. This compares to the pre-season forecast of 2.7 million.
About 650,000 sockeye have passed through the Babine fence so far this year. Fence counts are tracking a bit behind what might be expected for a Tyee escapement estimate of 1.4 million. (The difference between the 1.7 million mentioned above and the 1.4 million escapement past Tyee is that the 1.7 million is how many sockeye are thought to have entered Canadian waters. It is the TRTC: Total Return to Canada. The difference is what are thought to have been caught in various fisheries before the Tyee test fishery, which is located just upstream of the Skeena River’s estuary.)
Steelhead returns, which showed some strength at the beginning of the season, are now looking very poor, as estimated by the Tyee test fishery. They are currently tracking to be the 9th worst on record. Recall that this estimate is before they run the gauntlet of legal and IUU (illegal, unreported, and unregulated) in-river fisheries.
The Province of B.C. estimates the escapement of steelhead, as estimated at Tyee, (before any additional in-river mortality), is sufficient so as not to require any restrictions on the recreational fishery. The Province has complained to the Department about the 2025 commercial fishery. DFO’s response is essentially, ‘if you are satisfied that the number of steelhead reaching their rivers satisfies conservation objectives; what’s your problem?’.
Skeena coho look relatively poor.
Skeena chums, which are very depressed, are being reported in fisheries and recorded in the test fishery. This is good news.
Pinks remain abundant, although it appears the return peaked early, is now declining, and won’t be nearly as large as it looked earlier in the season.
I am pleased to see better chinook returns to the Skeena than we have seen in recent years. The return is still much less than it was in its banner years. They may also be benefiting from this year’s recreational closures.
Fishing has now started on Babine Lake, near the Fulton and Pinkut enhancement facilities, now that the facilities have secured the sockeye they required for population enhancement.
The Lake Babine Nation has chosen to no longer harvest its commercial allocation at the Babine Fence (where the Nation has harvested its sockeye for the past 8,000+ years) so as not to add to the over-harvesting of its wild sockeye populations. Instead, it will be fishing its commercial allocation terminally. This comes with significant economic cost. But LBN leadership say they don’t want to be another management agency that puts money over conservation and thereby contributes to the further decline of the Skeena’s wild sockeye populations.
Much of the information in this report is gathered from daily technical updates provided by Andy Rosenberger through the Skeena First Nations Technical Committee (SFNTC), along with comprehensive weekly reports put out by DFO, Alaska, and the Province of B.C.
Area 6 Pink Salmon
Stan, the longtime Area 6 charter patrolman, reports that there are excellent escapements of pink salmon throughout the area relative to the brood year. Like Skeena pinks, their timing was earlier than normal. By the time the area was opened for seines on July 24th, the bulk of the run had moved through the fishing area and into the channels. Chums are not great relative to the brood year. As Stan says, it takes an experienced eye to count chum salmon as they blend into the gravel. He can compare escapement trends across years, but it is difficult to produce accurate counts. This is the risk of DFO cutting funding for guardians such as Stan. I fear for the future if we lose him and his colleagues to the upcoming draconian budget cuts coming in the next two years.
Somass (Barkley Sound) Sockeye
The Barkley Sound commercial sockeye fishery is over for 2025. The total catch was around 270,000. Escapements are 375,000, well below the 535,000 target. The harvest rate was 42 per cent, which is over what it should have been for this run size. The return was clearly early and didn’t support later timed fisheries. Having said the above, escapements exceeded the biological reference goals of all three systems that support the fishery.
It is interesting that the total harvest rate on Barkley Sound sockeye will be around 42 per cent. The total harvest rate on the Skeena (with its abundant interception and bycatch issues), not including unregulated fisheries, will be much less than half this. It speaks to the complexity of managing Skeena sockeye. Barkley managers have three sockeye populations to contend with. Skeena managers must somehow balance the biological and ecological demands of 29 sockeye conservation units (CUs) and many more pink, coho, chum, chinook, and steelhead CUs. Also, Skeena managers have to contend with the impact of Alaskan interceptions. It is an impossible task, as evidenced by the state of many Skeena populations.
Management in Barkley Sound has switched over to the harvesting of enhanced chinook. The peak weeks for this fishery are from the last week of August through the first two weeks of September. Initial escapements of enhanced chinook look positive.
Fraser Sockeye
Are Canadian commercial fishermen right to be frustrated about how many Fraser sockeye they have been allowed to harvest? I think so. Having said this, I don’t think we can lay the blame fully on DFO or the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC). I think we all just forgot our undergrad courses in statistics.
To set up the discussion, thus far (August 19th), Canadian commercial fishermen have caught about 158,000 sockeye out of a forecast run of around 9 million. In the interests of clarity, Canadian First Nations have so far caught 480,000 sockeye. The total catch of Fraser sockeye, including the US catch (300,000), is currently around 978,000. By way of comparison, Barkley Sound sockeye had a 42 per cent exploitation rate, the Skeena around 20 per cent, while the Fraser so far stands at around 11 per cent.
All the planning that went into this year’s Fraser sockeye fishery was founded on the 50p (median) forecast of around 2.9 million sockeye. But what the forecast actually indicated was a wide range: think of a bell curve with p10 on the far left and p90 on the far right. The number of returning sockeye relative to p10 was 736,000 and p90 was 13 million. The 2.9 million was the median of the forecasts, which means it had the highest probability of happening. But there was a probability that any outcome between the 750,000 and 13 million was possible, especially considering the uncertainties in the forecast that DFO scientists were very clear about pre-season. Think about the range of possible outcomes between 750,000 and 13 million!
But all the energy, from everyone involved, went into planning for a p50 return of only 2.9 million and devising constraints to ensure sufficient spawners escaped fisheries and survived various scenarios for in-river mortality based on possible river temperatures and flows.
No one asked the obvious question, ‘What if?’ What if the return was much more abundant than the p50? If it were less than forecast, there would be zero fisheries and people, commercial fishermen included, would have accepted that.
Consider that, while the p50 forecast was for 2.9 million, the median abundance for this cycle line is almost 8 million. A larger return was therefore very possible.
So, here we are, with a return of about 9 million and no way to escape the management handcuffs managers and stakeholders put on themselves pre-season. It must be said that there was wide consultation on the plan, but the broad-scale planning and consultations never entertained a serious discussion on the ‘what ifs’. We never thought about why we should put the same handcuffs on managers for a run of 10 million as we did for a return of 2.9 million.
So should Canadian commercial fishermen feel frustrated that they are being allowed only very limited fishing opportunities on one of the larger returns in this cycle line? Sure they should.
Based on the PSC’s analysis of late-run abundance, which are the run-timing group constraining fisheries, even if as many fish die en route as the worst-case scenario, this year will see one of the largest spawning escapements in many decades for this cycle line. There is clearly sufficient fish available to allow Canadian fishermen cautious access to abundant summer-run sockeye, while ensuring sufficient late-run sockeye make it to the spawning grounds.
However, we all forgot our statistics 101 courses and didn’t bother to read DFO Science’s ‘fine print’. And, here we are.
I would also remind the reader that this discussion is not driven by concern over fishing pressure or catch. It is driven by climate change. The problem is not that there are insufficient sockeye available. There are more than enough late-run sockeye in the marine area to allow for a large commercial fishery. It is the concern that two-thirds of them may die en route to their spawning grounds due to high Fraser River water temperatures and low flows.
South Coast Pinks
Test fishing in Johnstone Straits and Area 20 remains strong. But I am getting the feeling the Fraser pink salmon return may not be as high as the p50 forecast of 27 million (12.6 million at p10 and 58 million at p90). There is certainly some strength to the return, but it may not pan out to be as large as many forecast.
Greg will be providing weekly fisheries updates, which we will publish here on Fridays. Stay tuned.
